New projections from Baltimore County Public Schools show an explosion of students at Towson High School and fewer students than previously expected at Dulaney High.
A recently posted “Students Count” report from BCPS says that Towson High is projected to have 2,022 students in the year 2026; that’s 306 more students than last year’s projections showed for the same year, and would put Towson at 159 percent capacity given its current building.
Towson has a state-rated capacity of 1,260 students and the current enrollment is about 1,550. The county has plans to rebuild and expand Towson High, and BCPS documents show a new Towson High with a capacity of 1,860. And some parents in the community say even that would be too large, given that the high school sits on the smallest plot of land of any high school in the county.
But according to the latest projections, even an 1,800-seat school would be nearly 200 seats short of what is needed at Towson High unless redistricting occurs.
RELATED: For Towson High, some parents say bigger isn’t necessarily better
Anirban Basu, the head of Sage Policy Group, worked with BCPS on the enrollment projections. He said that until recently, BCPS did not take into account the amount of new construction in an area, and that failing to do so ignored relevant data.
“I think makes for a more accurate projection,” Basu said. He added that he now has access to more updated “people-generation factors” such as the number of students per apartment or home. “So in my mind, these projections are about as refined at this point as they could be.”
Sage Policy has also been tapped to do a high-school enrollment study that will help inform construction and redistricting going forward. In addition to studying physical structures and population growth, focus groups with stakeholders will play a large role in what the ultimate recommendations will be, Basu said.
The study’s preliminary recommendation is due in May 2018, the community-engagement portion is slated for May through July, the final recommendation comes in August or September of 2018, and final approval from the Board of Education comes in the fall of 2018.
“These focus groups will be used to determine which options are deemed the least offensive,” he said. “There are tough choices ahead for the school system.”
When asked if would have made more sense for the county to wait for his study to be complete before committing to rebuild Towson and Dulaney high schools, Basu paused and then said:
“I would agree that as a general proposition it makes sense for an ongoing analysis to be completed, and this is not a multi-year study; it’s a multi-month study,” he said. “But there can be linkages between the analyst community and the political community, but I think a lot of decisions haven’t been made yet even though there is a lot of discussion about Dulaney and Lansdowne. There is room for analysis to deliver an outcome that is fair to everyone.”
RELATED: County Council says it opposes planning money for new Dulaney High
Here are the overall utilization numbers projected for 2027, which show whether schools will be over or under capacity:
Southwest Planning Area
elementary 91.41%
middle 82.33%
high 96.73%
Southeast Planning Area
elementary 101.87%
middle 83.47%
high 117.64%
Central Planning Area
elementary 104.76%
middle 106.85%
high 109.70%
Northwest Planning Area
elementary 104.30%
middle 94.75%
high 97.74 %
Northeast Planning Area
elementary 112.51%
middle 102.40%
high 107.48%
Some say the numbers call into question the plan to rebuild Dulaney ahead of Lansdowne. Lansdowne has been rated lower in terms of physical structure, but Dulaney was rated as both physically deteriorating and in need of greater capacity because of projected enrollment increases.
The new study projects that in 2027, Lansdowne will be at 105 percent capacity, while Dulaney will be at 103 percent capacity.
“A classroom of fourth graders could look at the numbers and figure out very easily that the biggest problems with overcrowding are in the northeast and the southeast,” said Councilman Tom Quirk. He accused County Executive Kevin Kamenetz of making a “hasty” decision to allocate planning money for a new Dulaney High ahead of Lansdowne High because Gov. Larry Hogan was set to tour Dulaney and Kamenetz didn’t want to be criticized for not addressing the school’s needs.
“I wish Gov. Hogan had been planning a trip to Lansdowne,” Quirk said.
RELATED: Kamenetz promises planning money for new Towson High building
A spokeswoman for Kamenetz said that the new study still shows a greater need for seats in the central corridor, which includes Towson, Dulaney, Carver Center, Loch Raven and Hereford high schools. In the central area, there will be a shortage of 659 seats in 2027, according to the new study.
By contrast, the southwest corridor — whose high schools include Lansdowne, Catonsville, Woodlawn, and Western School of Technology — shows a surplus of 306 seats in 2027. That means shortages in that area could be addressed by (the always unpopular option of) redistricting, while redistricting alone would not solve the capacity issue in the central area.
Additionally, Lansdowne High is home to three magnet programs, which could be moved to a different school.
Some redistricting is likely on the horizon in the central area.
“A new and larger Dulaney High School, along with a new Towson High School, will help address that [overcrowding] issue,” said county spokeswoman Ellen Kobler. “By adding seats to Dulaney, it enables BCPS to expand Dulaney’s boundaries to relieve overcrowding in the area.”
Yara Cheikh, a school advocate and president of the Ridgley Middle School PTA, said a replacement school at Dulaney would not only address the structural issues it has — Dulaney has been rated the second-worst high school facility in the county — but it could also alleviate the overcrowding at other nearby high schools.
“It could be part — part — of the solution,” Cheikh said.
-Kris Henry,
The Towson Flyer